TREND FORECASTING

FASHION DOES NOT FEED FASHION. 
- Shared situation awareness (themes and ideas are shared amongst the opinion formers) 

When searching for up and coming trends one has to use other forms to gather information to feed to the audiences. 

To forecast fashion is to recognise a pattern. A forecaster then uses this information to distinguish a trend and anticipate what might happen. 

3 STEPS OF FASHION FORECASTING 

1. Observe the raw data
2. Spot patterns to form hypothesis as to what may unfold 
3. Test hypothesis

BUBBLE UP - A trend that starts in the street and works its way up within the industry. 

TRICKLE DOWN - This is where clothing is incredibly difficult to understand so the high street has observed this and simplified it. Great example of where this happens is ZARA. 

TRAFALGAR - Slow fashion. An idea will evolve and develop over time. This trend will be touched upon again and again by designers and used as themes throughout various fashion houses. Celine is a great example as the minimalist theme is constantly thatched within their outcomes. 

FORD - Fast fashion. The trend is incredibly popular, whilst its about. They are large within the industry, they will sell quickly, but they will equally deteriorate in the industry as quickly.

THE CREATIVE ECONOMY

CREATIVE ECONOMY, SELF EMPLOYMENT 

THE CREATIVE ECONOMY 

• ORIGINATORS; People who create one off items. Fine art, craft (auction houses, art galleries)
• EXPERIENCE CREATORS; Gigs, shopping, festivals, theatre.
• CONTENT PRODUCERS; Films, games, music 

 - CREATIVE ECONOMY & FASHION PROMOTION

Innovation and growth

Based on ideas, innovation, creativity, talent and individuality 

• £71.4 billion to the UK economy
• £26 bn is fashion related 
• £8m per hour
• Growing at rate of 15.6% since 2008
• 5.6% of those employed in the UK (1.6m jobs)
• Creative industries employment increased by 8.6% between 2011 and 2012, compared to 0.7% for all of uk economy
• Exports by the creative industries was £15.5 billion in 2011, 8% of total UK service exports.
• Between 2009 and 2011, exports from the creative industries increased by 16.1%. This compares with an increase of 11.5% for total UK service exports

Fashion statistics 

• £26 billion; up from £21 billion in 2009
• Showing an increase of 22% in nominal terms 
• The UK fashion industry supports 797,00 jobs
• This is a decrease of 2.3% from 2009
• Employee’s wage income is estimated to have risen to over £46 billion
• An increase of 23% since 2009

- LITTLE/LARGE 

84% of creative businesses have less than 1o people

2% more than 100 people

60% of design businesses less than 5 people 

PORTFOLIO CAREER

• 48% portfolio working
• 23% self employed/freelance
• 18% running own business 
• 44% want to have own business 

FASHION CLUSTERING

Fashion clustering exists everywhere. Nothing amongst the hughstreet is positioned "by accident". I learnt on my fashion walk around central London, every single shop is positioned on purpose. 

MAFAIR TO REGENT STREET. 
Mafair is a classic shopping destination featuring some of the most luxurious shops in the industry. Mount St features contemporary brands like Celine and Balanciaga, Mount St is for the fashion forward customer who relishes in the fact he or she can afford such luxury. 


I must admit, Celine is my favourite luxury brand, so I am bias but the in store appearance of Celine Mount St is an example of how an shop floor should be designed. It's simple for customers to glide through the store, warm lighting and most importantly its not invasive, its minimal, clean and elegant. Just like the brand itself. 
- A fantastic touch point for customers.



St Audley St is found just off Mount St, the same pure luxurious theme continues.







LUXURY CLUSTERING 
MOCHINO, BELSTAFF, VIVIENNE WESTWOOD, DONNA KAREN AND ICONIC SKETCH (the old fashion house of Dior) all sit on Conduit Street.

Each store poses a very different atmosphere inside. The variation in music, sale associate dress, staff attitude and in store lay out where the main differentiating factors.

When walking around some of the Luxury branded stores like Louis Vuitton the atmosphere was a lot colder than those like Belstaff or Vivienne Westwood. This was mainly due to the sale associate attitude. Some, like in Belstaff encourage customers to walk around and shop, whereas some make you feel unwelcome like Louis Vuitton which was a shame as the in store design was breathtaking. 

Fendi was the best in store atmosphere. The main touch point within the store was the sales associate assisting us. She showed us around the entire store, explaining in detail the different collections and brand history. 

NEW/OLD BOND STREET
New and Old Bond Street is iconic for its Luxury, Haute Couture presence. Brands like Chanel, Hermes, Dior, Louis Vuitton, Stella McCartney all sit along these streets.

Continuing along Old/New Bond street we came to Saville Row, one of my favourite streets in London. Saville Row encapsulates British heritage and shows off what Britain is really truly good at; Tailoring. Henry Poole (Saville row's oldest tailor), Richard James and Lavin Boutique. 

The cluster featured here is one of the largest clusters amongst the streets in central London. This cluster is situated all together due to it's similar target audience. Those who have a large disposable income. 
There's also a power stance associated with having a store within these streets. These brands sit where they sit because they are the optimum level of luxury and to sit next to each other is to compete with one another.

RAVENSBOURNE PLUS

Ravensbourne Plus is a co curricular programme that enhances student academia whilst studying as an undergraduate working to preparing students for industry. The programme offers events, short courses, specific lectures all contributing towards students preparation for their chosen industry. 

RAVE LECTURES 
These lectures feature industry specific talks. The lecture may be in the from of; industry projects, workshops, short courses, mentoring for business or career advice. 

RAVE LATES 
This include guest speakers talking in key evening events. This provides opportunity to interact and learn about other key industries. They also cover all industry areas. 

RAVE SHORTS 
- Divided into 3 areas 

• BUSINESS SKILS; advice on working freelance, navigating hidden job market, and setting up in a creative industry
• PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT, skills that can make a substantial difference; networking, gaining confidence, successful public speaking  
• TECHNICAL SKILLS, classes in key software and other technical equipment such as photoshop.

MACRO TRENDS, NEO TOLKIENISM

Dreams  (click on link)

FANTASY?
Classic interpretations of fantasy include nerdy, geeky, perhaps the genre of freaks? But fantasy has been quietly simmering under the predicability's of the fashion industry. 

Neo Tolkienism is a macro trend that enables consumers and brands to embrace their inner geek, express fantasy and bring quirky life back into the creative industries.
Neo tolkienism has captivated the imagination of brands world wide and is taking a firm stance in our culture, becoming increasingly present in our lifestyle industries. 

"'we' re living in a science fiction world now, seeing new technologies around us all the time, this has changed the way people about the world and opened them up to fantastical storytelling because, at the moment, we cannot tell what is real or not."

Consumers have given into the world of fantasy and the unknown after being blinded by the extensive power of the digital industries. Consumers are desperate for an escape from the predicability of the 21st century. 

Neo Tolkienism isn't outlandish and extreme, it's just introducing a bit of mystery into industry. In fashion brands are already adopting this trend. Brands should divulge customers into the unknown. 

People are interested by the times where there were no real distractions. It was black and white. There's a particular interest in medical ages (game of thrones). Its a world where you either live, you die, you matter, you don't. There's no distractions like mass social media, extensive technological development. - this is something industry can adopt. 

MACRO TRENDS, THE SHARDED SELF

The development of social media. IS is good? is it bad? 

The trend "sharded self" explores the development of social media, and finding a balance between enough, and too little technological input. 

People are beginning to question how much we rely on the technology surrounding us. The sharded self focuses more so on how social media holds too much power and poses a threat to actual human interaction. 

SELF PROMOTION

Social media provides the power to express yourself online, and to communicate ones self as whoever they want to be. Social media means  one can inhabit as many lives as we like.

In terms of the fashion industry this means there a chance to play on the fact there's a growing concern on the lack of genuine interaction with the explosion of social media. Brands hold the power to re engage people and bring them back to real-world interaction.

Brands can also work with the growing need of consumers to perform online. Consumers have become obsessed with how they are perceived online; the amount of likes they receive, the amount of page views. Brands can work to introduce ways of manipulating this need. Brands should recognise online friends, family and followers are key audiences. Using online bloggers to "instagram" a branded item. This means the thousands of blog followers see this item, therefore want this item. 

Brands must see the danger of alienation.

They must work with the growing concern of the social media power and balance this with interaction. 

MACRO TRENDS, THE FLAT AGE SOCIETY

The flat age society is an eagerly waited revolution that advocates the audience of 60 years plus. The trend highlights the flaws in businesses that don't target these consumers.

The market of 60+ has quietly been increasing. These consumers are desperate for items that highlight their needs, but don't patronise.  The flat agers so far haven't had a substantial stance in the fashion world, but thats all set to change. It's a known fact that people are living longer, and this audience of 60 plus years are waiting to spend their money on meaningful items that connect them to the modern world. 

Men and Women of the flat agers shouldn't have to confide in what sadly society has created of them. The trend of flat age society enables brands to target these consumers rather than forget about them. Vivienne Westwood is a great example of how her age bracket hasn't allowed her stylishness to slip, or the development of her brand, so why is it so many of the 60+ market allow them selves to.

"Something exciting is in the air. Forget everything you thought about being old, or age even. In the society of the future, age isn't just a number- its a flat" LSN GLOBAL.

The fashion industry is becoming more age aware. Aware that men and women post retirement have money to spend. This market group however don't crave the items brands are selling them. 

I asked my 81 year old grandmother how she thought about what was on offer for her age bracket. My grandmother is a woman who doesn't act her age, being a widow she constantly goes away, meeting new people and interacting with other women in her situation and they all agreed; 

" I am an 82 year old woman, I don't want to look 50, i don't even want look any younger than I am, I've had my 20s, 30s etc. I want to embrace the place I am in now and wear clothes that are stylish and suit my body. I don't want to wear frumpy, boring clothes that are on offer to my age. I also don't want to wear tight, incredibly short clothes. There's no place for women or men for that matter that can supply stylish clothes for my age bracket. Its incredibly frustrating. "

There are brands and key individuals that are captivating this revolution. The trend has driven brands to employ older models such as Bernhard Willhelm. "All walks beyond the catwalk" is a great campaign that works to introduce older women to the fashion world. 

MACRO TRENDS, THE CONVERGENCE ECONOMY

WHAT?

A convergence economy works to blur the lines between different lifestyle industries.Rather than being the brands behaviour, convergence economy is down to the brand itself. Brands are moving away from traditional shopping experiences and are merging to become more creative and innovative. 

WHERE?

Convergence economy occurs in stores like Topshop Oxford circus, M&S, Dovers Street Market and H&M. 

- They achieve this through introducing things like DJ nights, instore hair salons, Art, and food stores.

WHO?

The whole purpose of a convergence economy is to target as many consumers as possible. With the constant growth of internet shopping, convergence economy makes shopping in stores easier as consumers can achieve more than one task when shopping. 

WHEN?

In 2007 consumers would visit 5 stores in one shopping trip compared to 3 nowadays. 

WHY?

Convergence economy was created to create an easier, more exciting shopping experience for consumers. The blurring between different industries like fashion with art, music or food makes shopping much more enjoyable, easier and more efficient. Consumers are also more likely to shop in store rather than online if they can achieve more than one task in their shopping trip, a luxury online shopping won't allow. The high street is dying, with convergence consumers are encouraged to shop in store.

H&M Loves Music Bloc party in Paris   (follow link for example)

TOUCH POINTS

WHAT IS A TOUCHPOINT?
- Anyway a consumer will experience a brand

Buying and selling channels // Distribution // Service // Transactions // Classic advertising (above the line) // Bellow the line advertising (product placement) // Advertorials // Viral adverts // Social networking (Instagram, Facebook, Twitter) // Sales staff // Point of sale. 

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF A TOUCHPOINT?
Each individual step made in a business contains a number of touch points. These touch points are sourced when such individuals come in contact with the brand. 
- The goal is therefore to ultimately have each touch point reinforce the brands marketplace promise. 

IMPORTANT TOUCHPOINT RELATED QUESTIONS

• How does a brand generate customer demand?
• How are products sold within this brand?
• How do consumers use these products?

GLOBAL BRAND IDENTITY

WHAT IS A BRAND?

An identity. Think of a brand like a person; they have a personality. Brands can be a name, logo, slogan or colour combination. A brand is how the owner of the business whats their product to be communicated; how its perceived.

• A brand name is a trademark (it cannot be used by anyone else)
• A brand is a products personality; USP (unique selling point)

BRAND EXPERIENCE, BRAND IMAGE

Feelings, thoughts, beliefs, attitudes
This psychological aspect is referred to as "brand image" and exists in the minds of people made up of information and expectation of the brand.

BRAND AUDIENCE 
A brand is nothing without an audience. A brand is only as good as its response to it. 

• "Opinion formers". Crucial small group of people. This elite group of people make trends, they don't follow them.
• No brand could exist without their target audience believing in them
• Brands are constantly equiring feedback from their target market about certain products. They should work to advocate their audience opinion.

BRAND IDENTITY 

The outward appearance of a brand; name, logo, campaign.

• The nugget of information about the brand that will hook the consumer. 

Brand identity is created by the brand owner, it therefore only reflects how the owner wants the brand to be perceived. 

- Contrast brand image whereby brand image is due to the audience perception. 

BRAND STRATEGY AND MANAGEMENT 

Core market in the middle. What the brand is known for; (Dior, haute couture)

Outer, peripheral market and brand extension; perfume, leather goods etc. 

Unrelated market; some brands tapping into other markets; Missoni hotel Scotland. 

Brand strategy, a long term plan for developing a successful brand. 

FASHION HIERARCHY

Market segmentation 

1. A group of people that share one or more characteristics. Each market segment is unique and marketing managers decide on various criteria to create their target market(s). They may approach each segmentdifferently, after fully understanding the needs, lifestyles, demographics and personality of the target.

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, Economy

"All economy fashion is fast fashion, but not all fast fashion is economical"

Zara, Topshop, Pull & Bear, Primark and H&M are all Economy brands. 
Economy fashion is for those who desire on trend garments at affordable prices, with garments on average starting at £7. 

The first sweatshop appeared post WW1, In the 20th century. This was due to the need for cheap, quickly produced clothing after the devastation of the war. 

Within high street more than 10,000 different styles are produced each year with big high street contributors such as Hennes and Mauritz creating the largest chunk of these figures.

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, High Street

The High street has a price influenced direct market of customers around age 30+. This however does vary with different lifestyles and often on the brand itself. Certain brands attract a much younger audience. 

GAP, Monki, Oasis, and Warehouse are all example of high street brands and due to the fluctuation in price range and styles many high street brands are edging to more of the economy segment. 

High street is obviously cheaper than designer brands, but there is some elements of runway influence. 

High street fashion originates from the 20th century due to mothers staying at home with their children causing disposable income to drop. This meant there was a need to cater for this type of customer, thus the birth of high street fashion. Entry level for a garment can be as little as £5.00 for an item like t shirts and basics. 

The high street is deteriorating though because of a growth in online shopping. Many retailers use online retail as a main source of income. When the high street began there was as many as 250 stores, now due to the increase in online shopping and the expansion of other market segments theres as little as 70 still running. 

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, Diffusion Brands

Bridge markets target those with a burning desire to shop at upper market brands but don't have the money to buy the main higher end label within the brand.

Brands such as Alexander Mcqueen, Marc by Marc Jacobs, DKNY, and Moschino.

Price vary of garments extensively through diffusion brands. The prices range from £40.00 to £400.00 due to the specific brands. On average the bridge brands are 30% less than the catwalk line.

Due to the cheaper price, as a whole, bridge brands attract a younger market and has enticed a new target consumer group. Although this is a huge benefit for the brand as the bridge brands attract a larger group of individuals, bridge brands cause question with the exclusivity and quality of the brand. Loyal customers who pay for the catwalk ready to wear line may feel the exclusivity of the brand is damaged with the association of such bridge brands.

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, Bridge Brands

Bridge Brands sit below Luxury and above high street to bridge the gap between expensive and moderate price points in fashion. 

Bridge brands originated in the 1970s due to a gap in the market between both high street and luxury.

Much like the luxury segment, bridge brands are marketed to women aged 30+ with a disposable income, but the key difference is the amount of disposable income available to spend in the segment. Due to the link between both luxury and high street the target market is bigger. This is due to the change in price range and accessibility for a variety of customer.

The average price entry point is around £50.00 for a Bridge brand garment. This is a much more realistic price point than say the luxury market. Brands include, COS, Ted Baker, Joeseph, and LK Bennett. A lot of these bridge brands are owned by the same company, such as COS with HM. 

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, Luxury Fashion

Luxury meaning exclusivity, this market segment enables consumers to purchase high fashion pieces at a cheaper price, yet still in the umbrella of the "elite market". Prices are strategic in a sense they are available to a specific market that makes the consumer feel they're a part of this elite market. 

LUMH

KERING

RICHEMONT 

= The 3 main luxury groups.

There is a huge variety in price entry levels in luxury fashion. 

Luxury Fashion originates in the late 19th century. Labels like Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Gucci, Prada and Burberry are the main players in the Luxury fashion market.

This segment targets consumers with a high disposable income, those that earn over £100,000+ a year with a target age of roughly 35-54. China is the largest consumer group.

FASHION MARKET SEGMENTS, Haute Couture

Haute Couture 
The champions of Fashion Haute Couture insist they are visionaries just like any other art form. 

Haute Couture represents the peak of luxury fashion. Within the fashion industry, Couture is the top market segments with garments starting at £16,000 a piece.

Haute Couture was founded in Paris in the 19th century. Couture fashion houses therefore can only originate from Paris and can only present their designs in the exclusive Couture fashion weeks in both January and July.

The extreme attention to detail is what makes couture garments so special. Garments are known to take up to 700 hours, with sometimes more than 20 individual seamstresses working on each couture piece. 

Requirements for Haute Couture are set by De La Couture (The french ministry of industry).

• The fashion house must have a full workshop in Paris with no fewer than 20 employees. 
• Two collections a year, January and July
• Charles Frederick Worth is widely considered the father of Haute Couture
• Starting garments should be prices around £16,000 to £20,000

Couture garments are made to measure. Created by hand and delicately pieced together using rare fabrics and embellishments, price really isn't a concern with these pieces. 

Main clients include those from BRIC market consumers (Russia, China, and the middle East)

DISTINGUISHING PROFESSIONALISM

To carry the eligibility of being a professional not only in fashion but within any industry means an individual must withhold a basic checklist of attributes.

Most importantly an individual must be approachable, well mannered, thick skinned, well presented, organised, carry at least basic reading, writing and verbal communication skills. An individual well equipped for industry must be able to take criticism, criticism is quite possibly the best tool for success, it enables an individual to continuously improve oneself, no one is perfect.

Their need and desire to success must be well balanced with a positive attitude. Employees or colleagues will quickly pick up on a weak ill mannered individual and they'll play on this flaw to test ones eligibility. General industry knowledge in ones chosen industry is crucial, this embodied with a a trained level of social skills and likeable characteristics will encourage success.

Qualifications are a grey area within eligibility of professionalism. Although basic GCSE's, A-levels, BA degrees can work to an individuals advantage, such qualifications aren't crucial in the run for success. What is crucial is industry experience. An individual can never have too much industry experience, no placement or job is the same and different skills and attributes can be developed.

Now more than ever each industry especially fashion is becoming increasingly popular, the one way you as an individual will stand out from the rest is a mixture of the above and an underlying thirst for success. This will make you stand out. 

THE ORIGIN OF FASHION

Fashion

Noun

1. A popular or the latest style of clothing, hair, decoration, or behaviour.

" The latest Parisian Fashions"

One of the most central questions within the field of fashion research is: What is fashion?
Throughout history, the word fashion has had different connotations; its meanings have changed in order to suit the social customs and clothing habits of different, consecutive social structures.  

When considering what is fashion it's best to begin by considering how fashion came about. Fashion originated from the Palace of Versailles just on the outer suburbs of Paris. Fashion developed from the riches of the world, the autocracy of Paris, the very centre point of wealth and luxury.

Louis XIV of France (Louis le grand) advocated luxurious dress. He set the bar of couture fashion amongst autocracy, sending lavish, impeccably dressed dolls to palaces across Europe. From this the extravagant world of couture fashion was born. Its thereby straight forward to distinguish what fashion is. Earlier conceptualisations of fashion tried to describe how fashion functioned within a class pyramid where distinguishing insignias, such as forms of dress, filtered down. 

Fashion is a way to express the type of person you are without having to speak. A form of self  expression and a peak into ones personality without having to fully express oneself.